Rychlé shrnutí roku 2020, zamyšlení nad rokem 2021 – nové memo Howarda Markse

Howard Marks, value investor a zakladatel investiční společnosti Oaktree Capital Management, publikoval další ze svých výjimečných memorand, které by nemělo uniknout vaší pozornosti. Marks se tentokrát ve svém memu krátce vrací k roku 2020 a uvádí celou řadu zajímavých extrémů, které s sebou přinesl. Většina memoranda je však věnována roku letošnímu. Marks se zamýšlí nad optimálním přístupem, jak v současném prostředí investovat.

Kompletní memo naleznete ZDE.

Marks závěrem uvádí:

„The bottom line is this: given current conditions, should investors be at their usual risk position, more defensive or more aggressive? While the risk-adjusted returns of most asset classes seem to be at rough equilibrium relative to each other, all absolute returns are ultra-low, commensurate with today’s equally low interest rates. On balance, I think it’s appropriate to be in one’s normal stance, perhaps with a modest bias toward defense. Since the rewards for moving further out on the risk curve – such as   yield spreads – aren’t lavish, I have trouble seeing this as a time to aggressively chase high returns.  Moreover, the surer one is that rates will soon rise meaningfully, the more cautious one should be today.

Because the primary risk lies in the possibility of rising inflation and the higher interest rates that would bring, I think portfolios have to make allowances: even though we can’t predict, we should prepare.  This possibility means (a) bonds with maturities much above ten years are obvious candidates for underweighting and (b) inflation beneficiaries should be considered for overweighting, including floating-rate debt, real estate capable of seeing rent increases, and the stocks of companies with the power to pass on price increases and/or the potential for rapid earnings growth.“