Společnost GMO publikovala zajímavý dokument zaměřený na problematiku tarifů s názvem „TARIFFS Making the U.S. Exceptional, But Not in a Good Way“. V GMO dospěli k následujícímu závěru:
„The tariffs that the U.S. is imposing on its trading partners will bring about several costs that are important for investors to understand. Some of those costs are inherent to what a tariff is, while others stem from the fact that U.S. industrial policy has, and looks to continue to have, a huge amount of uncertainty associated with it. That continuing uncertainty will hit investment levels, return on capital and overall growth globally, with the U.S. bearing the brunt of it. Beyond the uncertainty, tariffs should reduce the fair value of currencies against the U.S. dollar in the shorter term, although the impact will be smaller if countries retaliate (our base case) than if they do not. Tariffs also will hit the profits of most companies that do business in the U.S., including high-quality companies with significant market power, like the Magnificent Seven. For lower-quality companies, this hit may be enough to drive some into bankruptcy. That increased bankruptcy risk alongside generally tight credit spreads means that U.S. high yield corporate credit looks to be a particularly bad risk/reward trade-off. While tariffs are also inherently inflationary, we believe the risks to U.S. Treasuries are more balanced than they are for U.S. corporate credit or U.S. stocks, and we continue to believe that non-U.S. stocks are a better risk/reward trade-off than most stocks in the U.S. The strong absolute and relative performance of GMO’s Asset Allocation strategies during the first quarter demonstrates the potential for valuation-sensitive strategies to add value during these uncertain times.“
Detaily a zajímavé grafy naleznete v dokumentu.