John Hussman, zakladatel Hussman Funds, zveřejnil další ze svých ponurých měsíčních komentářů, v němž se tentokráte věnuje bezmezné důvěře investorů ve schopnosti centrálních bank zamezit poklesům trhů. Dále rozebírá otázku rizika, spekulace, morální hazard, inflaci a v neposlední řadě i koronaviru.
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V úvodu svého komentáře uvádí zajímavý citát, který jiného value investora (Jeremyho Granthama), který stojí za povšimnutí. Grantham v nedávném rozhovoru kritizoval centrální bankéře a krátkou paměť investorů.
„Lower rates and moral hazard will raise the price of assets. No one was a bigger friend of the stock market than Greenspan. He did race to the rescue when it finally lost air. The S&P 500 went down 50%, but it only hit long-term trend, and it didn’t stop the Nasdaq from dropping 82%. Bernanke completely didn’t see the housing bubble and the risk it posed. He said ‘The U.S. housing market has never declined.’ It had never declined because it had never had a bubble before. Hyman Minsky lives: you create a situation like that and it will eventually burst of its own weight. The housing market went back all the way to trend and below, which was a dreadful hit. It created so much chaos, and it carried the stock market down with it, again 50% on the S&P. These are not small declines, and yet they occurred in the face of passionate defenders and promoters of moral hazard. They all talk a wonderful game that they’ll be a friend of asset class pricing. And yet it didn’t stop two of the biggest wipeouts in American history.
The most impressive thing here is not that they do the same thing over and over again as if they have somehow no memory. It’s the faith the financial community has in them, despite the fact that they’ve been let down badly twice. These were not insignificant setbacks. The tech crash was brutal. The housing bust was merciless. And yet, it’s as if it never happened. Hey. Greenspan was our friend. Bernanke was our friend, and we got croaked, guys! What is the matter with you? The Federal Reserve simply does not understand the risks of asset price bubbles and asset price collapse. It is clear from the data they don’t get it. We apparently never see that. We’re willing to look through the crash.“
– Jeremy Grantham (slightly abridged), The Top of the Cycle, August 19, 2021
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