Komentář „The Folly of Ruling Out a Collapse“ naleznete ZDE.

Hussman velmi zdařile popisuje rozdíl mezi spekulací a investicí. V komentáři uvádí:

„Don’t kid yourself. If you’re fully invested in stocks here, you’re a speculator. If your exposure to stocks doesn’t meaningfully take account of valuations here, you’re a speculator. Now, there can be intelligent speculation, but there can also be reckless speculation. If your speculation is based primarily on the fact that prices have gone up in the past, it’s very likely that you’re speculating recklessly.

As Graham & Dodd observed in 1934, investment means buying a security at a valuation that is associated with a reasonable expectation of acceptable long-term returns, based on a careful analysis of the relationship between the current price and expected future cash flows. Speculation means buying a security in the expectation that its price will advance. In my view, intelligent investment requires careful consideration of the arithmetic that links current prices with future cash flows; and the historical evidence that relates reliable valuation measures to subsequent returns. Intelligent speculation requires careful consideration of the condition of investor psychology (which we gauge using market internals) as well as the extent, if any, that prices are compressed in a way that provides them substantial room to run. … „

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