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„The tariffs that the U.S. is imposing on its trading partners will bring about several costs that are important for investors to understand. Some of those costs are inherent to what a tariff is, while others stem from the fact that U.S. industrial policy has, and looks to continue to have, a huge amount of uncertainty associated with it. That continuing uncertainty will hit investment levels, return on capital and overall growth globally, with the U.S. bearing the brunt of it. Beyond the uncertainty, tariffs should reduce the fair value of currencies against the U.S. dollar in the shorter term, although the impact will be smaller if countries retaliate (our base case) than if they do not. Tariffs also will hit the profits of most companies that do business in the U.S., including high-quality companies with significant market power, like the Magnificent Seven. For lower-quality companies, this hit may be enough to drive some into bankruptcy. That increased bankruptcy risk alongside generally tight credit spreads means that U.S. high yield corporate credit looks to be a particularly bad risk/reward trade-off. While tariffs are also inherently inflationary, we believe the risks to U.S. Treasuries are more balanced than they are for U.S. corporate credit or U.S. stocks, and we continue to believe that non-U.S. stocks are a better risk/reward trade-off than most stocks in the U.S. The strong absolute and relative performance of GMO’s Asset Allocation strategies during the first quarter demonstrates the potential for valuation-sensitive strategies to add value during these uncertain times.“

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„In our opinion, the current stock price is so low that only small improvements are needed for the shares to re-rate higher.“

Kompletní report naleznete ZDE.

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Kompletní přepis prezentace naleznete ZDE.

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The post Investiční příležitosti spojené s odlivem kapitálu z Číny appeared first on Investice do akcií.

Ve společnosti Research Affiliates se proto rozhodli pro jeho modifikaci. Vytvořili CC CAPE (Current Constituents Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-Earnings ratio), který zohledňuje aktuální složení akciových indexů. Nejsou tudíž použity historické zisky firem, které již třeba v indexu dávno nejsou. Po přepočtu dospěli k závěru, že americké trhy jsou sice stále drahé, avšak ne tolik jako v dobách technologické bubliny na přelomu tisíciletí. Více ve článku ZDE.

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